Will we have more or fewer jobs for programmers in the coming years?
By Rafael Thomazelli - Software Architect and Head of Engineering at Verzel
This is the question many have been asking after a first half of the year filled with discussions about layoffs and the impact of ChatGPT. The general feeling was that the programming job market would shrink and many people would be laid off, but is this fear justified?
In a study released recently, on May 31, 2023, Google presented the main challenges faced by the information technology (IT) sector in Brazil. The report, developed in collaboration with the Brazilian Association of Startups (Abstartups), revealed that the country will face a shortage of 530,000 IT professionals by the year 2025. These figures highlight the talent and expertise gap that the Brazilian IT industry will face in the coming years.
It is estimated that, annually, between 2021 and 2025, around 53,000 professionals will graduate through training programs or even through alternative learning platforms, such as those offered by Devaria. However, the demand for new talent during that same period is projected to reach 800,000.
According to Google, this scenario results in a shortage of 530,000 professionals, further emphasizing the imbalance between job availability and the supply of qualified talent.
Brazil ranks third among G20 countries with the greatest potential to increase its GDP due to the lack of digital skills.
There is a common concern, expressed by both aspiring professionals and those already in the field, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will take over a significant portion of programming tasks, thereby reducing the need for new developers and consequently, the number of job openings.
This statement is also not entirely accurate, according to Kevin Xu, Global Expansion Strategist at GitHub. He emphasizes that we are still far from reaching a point where there is so much software available that developers are no longer needed.
"I propose a simple lens to resolve this debate: look around and count how many products or services you regularly use that you wish were better digitized or ‘software-ized.’ Unless and until that number is zero, there will be more developers, not fewer.
Judging by my own personal life, you can safely assume my answer is definitely not zero. Not even close. And I live in the United States and work in tech. If you live outside one of the most technologically advanced or internet-connected countries, that count is probably even higher. There are far more technologies that should be built and aren’t. AI-assisted coding simply allows more people to fill that gap.
Despite Wall Street’s zero-sum mentality, if you look at the world through my proposed lens, it’s pretty clear that AI is an accelerator, not a detractor, of the uninterrupted global growth of developers."
In other words, something we’ve been saying for some time is that, first: layoffs occur due to an excess of operational staff required to bring a company to its operational peak. After reaching that stage, it’s normal for the number of employees to shrink, and for the product to stabilize.
Another factor is that we still have hundreds of thousands of companies that are barely digitized and need to undergo digital transformation. According to Gartner, by 2030, any company that has not embraced digital transformation will be destined to fail within a short period of time.
And last but not least, both in Brazil and around the world, there are significantly more job openings for programmers each year than educational institutions are currently able to fill. Therefore, the opportunity outlook remains positive (at least for the next 5 to 7 years).
Considering these points, it's undeniable that the field of programming still offers an excellent cost-benefit ratio for those looking to embark on a new career and adapt to technology-driven professions.
Sources:
Interconnect: AI Will Create More Developers, Not Less
G1: Brazil will have a deficit of 530,000 technology professionals by 2025, Google study shows